What does the future look like?

I just answered a question that had been posted online.  It asked, what does the future look like according to you?  Since the beginning of time, I could imagine that man often pondered this question.  From the Mayans to the cold war era “The Jetsons” view of the future, it’s a fascinating subject.  I’m not one to believe in the “doom and gloom” versions of the future, people have been predicting “the end” for quite some time, and history has shown they are batting at .000.  

My view of the future is based on some pretty obvious stuff:  The population will grow as people will live longer and the life expectancies in currently developing countries will be much longer.  The need for resources for this growing population will drive innovation.  Energy will play a huge role in the future.  An important x-factor will be transportation.  In less than 100 years, humans went from wood and canvas flying machines to supersonic jets, rockets, and space shuttles.  The next 100 years will see transportation technology that will make the current means human travel seem ancient.            

So what exactly would I see in the future?  I would look into the future and see the end of institutional religion as we know them.  I’m personally not an atheist or agnostic, but a large amount of people on this planet are simply not mature and rational enough to see religion as a means of peace and education, not a means to hate others for not agreeing with your religion.  Therefore, moderate and rational people will place less time, passion, and effort into these religions, and they will eventually lose influences over the masses, and then die off as a result.  Once the power of institutional religion is gone, we will see a future of unprecedented scientific, social, and technological progress.  The future man will be a spiritual person, not a religious one, as he had in the past. 

I see a future where most humans will be racially ambiguous due to generations of mixing of different races.  A mixture of dominant genes from several races will dictate the physical appearance of future humans.  As mentioned, scientific and medical advances will take place and people will ultimately live longer; A lot longer.  This means the living population on earth will ultimately expand even more.  First, technology will allow humans, who at some point will have exhausted most of the space on “suitable” land; to figure out how to live comfortably in deserts and arctic areas.  Then humans; since 2/3s of the planet is under water, will build self-contained and self sufficient cities under water; first in bays or off shore, then in the middle of the oceans.  Eventually, humans will colonize habitable planets within the our galaxy or possibly solar system, facilitated by spacecraft using advanced propulsion technology able to travel at sub-light speeds, will be able to send groups of people to the edges of our solar system within months. 

The struggle for energy will be a thing of the past.  Tesla’s theories of electric currents in the atmosphere and in space, and the safe transfer of wireless energy, will eventually be proven true, and wireless energy will be collected from space to be used to power man’s machines and cities on the earth.  There will be no need for power plants, fossil fuels, generators, or even nuclear reactors.  Automobiles will largely be electric and with the perfection of safe, wireless electric transmission; expensive, heavy, and toxic batteries will go away.  Water will be a sought after resource, and therefore desalination technology of the future will facilitate supplying not only a large population with potable drinking water, but irrigation for agriculture in places where there were not previously agriculture helping to feed this larger population. 

Advances in communication will also be dramatic.  Gone will be the days of laptops, computers, keyboards, computer mice, and even smart phones.  Small, button-less, screen-less, voice (or fingerprint) activated electronic devices, little bigger than a modern credit card will be able to act as a phone, a TV, a radio, an internet browser, a book reader, a navigation system, a computer, and a house key.  It will be used to stream in holographic images of TV shows, the news, movies, the internet, and make video calls from anywhere without the need for impractical and expensive audio/visual equipment or even an internal power source. 

The military of the future will also be a different place as civilization will grow weary of casualties in conflict.  However, a few will still conduct war.  In the future, unmanned fighter craft and bombers will eventually replace humans in the cockpits.  Naval warships will also be notably absent of human sailors.   Advances in robotics will also lead to more ground armies made up of autonomous or remote controlled machines capable of moving on all known land terrain, without the logistical needs required for a human foot soldier.  It may be very feasible that in the future, the outcome of wars will be decided on whose machines inflict the most damage on the on their opponents machines without a single human war casualty.  Conventional weapons technology of the future will also be so devastating and frightening, that most countries will rarely conduct warfare at all. 

This is what I would expect to see in the future based not simply of me guessing, but based on the past innovations that started in the industrial revolution and the historically constant needs of humans.  Very few people 150 years ago could have predicted how life would be today.  So I don’t think my predictions are really that far out there.   

College, things to consider.

 

Much has been discussed in this tough economy concerning the value of a college education.  According to the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics press release, the unemployment rate among college grads over the age of 25 is 4.1 percent.  That’s half the national average.  So, it does pay to have a degree these days.  However, there are some very important considerations for those of us who are working adults looking to further their education, and young people about to start their freshman year:

1.  College is not cheap nowadays:  I had to put my Captain Obvious comment first and foremost. According to the U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics; The average cost of a 4 year education has jumped has jumped from $15,996 per year in 2000, the year I graduated, to $21,657 per year (Figures constant dollars) in 2011.  Such costs can and often do lead to crushing debt.

2.  Recent college grads face high unemployment (10%) and low wages:  This may run counter-intuitive to the aforementioned statistic about college grads having low unemployment.  However, that is for those 25 years an older, IE those with job experience under their belt.  Many of today’s employers are taking advantage of the slow economy by not being in much of a hurry to hire educated, but inexperienced workers.  Employers want experience, arguably, before an education.  It makes sense to an employer to hire someone that needs minimum training.  This is a good thing for mid-career or early career already employed workers who want to stay in their career field and further their education, but a bad thing for very recent college grads. 

       3.  More degrees won’t guarantee you a good, high paying job.  Several degrees in several disciplines may sound good on paper.  In reality, it doesn’t really give you an advantage over anyone else who did their homework and has only one degree.  Doing this brings the possibility of a two headed dragon that will likely burn you:  More debt, and not enough experience actually working, because you spent too much time going to school.

 4.  The world won’t end for you if you don’t have a math or science degree.  The data is hard to dispute that a degree in one of the sciences or math degrees can be very lucrative in the long run.  However, it’s been vastly overestimated once you do a breakdown of wealth vs degrees.

      5.  Not everyone needs to go to college.  “What the hell is going on here?” That may be your question as you read this.  Before I get hate-mail of people accusing me of hypocrisy and mass confusion, let me explain a bit.  Many of us, especially for those of us mid-career, may not need the added expense and stress of going to school to meet career and wage goals.  There are other options that bring the perks of a degree, but costs less, and takes less time.     

               
These considerations are big, and unfortunately, too many people do not address these considerations and simply dive head first into going to college.  The biggest weapon at your disposal when considering college, no matter if you are 16 or 55, is planning.  Big subsets of that planning should be experience and networking.  From here, we can address the aforementioned considerations.

1.  When considering the costs of college, one must do a cost benefit analysis.  This comes down to planning.  Ask yourself if you are a young person:  Do you want to get a degree because society or your parents are telling you to get a degree?  What will be my college debt vs the wage I plan to earn after I finish?  If you are getting a degree because some TV pundit or mom and dad says so; that is the wrong answer.  Getting a degree should be part of well planned, long term goals.  Getting a degree for the sake of getting a degree is an expensive and foolish undertaking.  As mentioned, college is not cheap.  Therefore, there is no shame in taking a year to work to save some money, or starting at a community college or junior college before enrolling in an accredited 4 year school. 
For those already working full time, ask yourself this:  Am I doing this to change careers or enhance my current one, or simply meet a goal I didn’t get to meet when I was younger?  If it is the latter, beware.  Don’t pursue a degree without a plan or legitimate reason.  Your cost-benefit analysis should involve your family life, wage increases (or decreases), career fulfillment and goals, possible debt, and of course, the time you will dedicate to school while working a full time job.  More often than not, someone in mid-career would be wise to further their education, but it must be planned and excused wisely.
One more note on costs.  Avoid for-profit colleges as much as possible.  A study by The National Bureau of Economic Research, noted that students who attend for-profit colleges are more likely to be unemployed, earn less, have higher debt levels, and are more likely to default on their student loans than similar students at non-profit educational institutions.  On top of that, these colleges prey on the unemployed and underemployed (hence most of their advertizing occurs mid-day) by offering substandard education and training for private college amounts of money.  Yes, there are a handful of legit ones out there, notably Phoenix, but for the most part, they are an expensive headache that should be avoided at all costs.  

2.  High unemployment among recent grads is largely due to a combination of a tough job market and a failure of recent grads to adapt to that job market.  Understand this very well:  Employers see experience as valuable as an education, if not more so.  So what does this mean to that 17 or 18 year old potential college freshman?  Make a decision quick on what you want to do after you graduate, look for a job while in college that closely mirrors that career, and network.  Sure, most parents would frown upon their kids working while going to school.  Well, if you want your kid to be in your home long after they graduate, you may want to encourage it.  I’m sure some of you might say, “what if there are no jobs in the area of school I can get while in college that I need?”  Well, a “job” may not even have to be a paying one.  It could be an unpaid apprenticeship or volunteer work.  Anything that provides job experience within a student’s chosen focus of career.  A college degree with 4 years of experience mirroring that degree will get your resume higher on the pile come graduation time than someone with just a degree and little to no experience. 

As for those of us mid-career, this is much less of an issue unless you make a dramatic career change.  At that point, networking will be a bigger asset as hopefully being on the workforce for a number of years, you would be able to easier meet others in your desired field.  There is also no shame in being apprentice part time or volunteer outside of work hours to get into your new career of choice.          

3.  Getting several degrees (more than two) is at best questionable, and at worst, self-destructive.  I won’t lie, short of spending the rest of your life and career in academia; I don’t understand what possesses people to spend this much time getting every possible degree there is to get.  This is obviously expensive, stressful, and can be actually harmful to your chosen career.  At some point, we have to grow up and start thinking about actually choosing a career (or starting a business) and getting valuable job experience instead of spending 20 years taking classes. 

Let’s say one can somehow afford to get 5 bachelors and 3 masters degrees and a PhD.  What happens when you decide on a career?  How would it look to a future employer to see someone with a bunch of degrees with little relevant, real world job experience?  How will you have time for anything resembling a social life or networking in your desired career field?  In my view, someone who seems obsessed over getting piles of degrees did not plan (there’s that word again) well or lacks focus.  This same rule applies to those who spend 6-7 years trying to get a single degree.  But I will cover that in a tad more detail later on.   

4.  Math and science degrees are no doubt important in this high tech world and society.  Engineers, IT specialists, physicists, biologists, chemists, and other math and science heavy disciplines are always good paying high demand career fields.  So obviously, the career gurus want to push these majors on college students.  However, the reality is; not everyone wants to major in science or math.  Furthermore, a surprising amount of high income earners did not get a 4 year degree in a math or science discipline.  According to the Census Bureau’s 2010 American Community Survey, the top income earners in the US unsurprisingly did indeed major in a field in health/medicine, zoology, biochemical sciences, and economics.  Yet, right up there among the highest earning degrees were also history, social/ethnic studies, political science, English, and art history (seriously). 

So, if you have the drive, the attitude, and plan well (get it yet???), someone holding an “easy” liberal arts degree can be just as competitive on the job market and earn a high dollar as anyone holding a math or science heavy college degree.  Again, if you like science and math, have at it.  Heaven knows we need more math and sciences geniuses in this country.  But don’t feel like the scum of the earth because you chose a liberal arts degree.  As the numbers from the community survey tell, there are plenty of people that are doing very well for themselves who majored in degrees outside of science of math. 

5.  I made mention I would have to explain myself by claiming that not everyone needs to go to college.  Well, this is an ugly reality not everyone wants to face.  Higher education is not for everyone.  Yes, a degree pays.  Yes, if at all possible, further your education.  However, the world always needs mechanics, plumbers, and other careers that don’t need 4 years of school.  Not everyone learns best inside a classroom.  I am a fan of higher education but I disagree with the communal frowning upon of hard working people who didn’t go to college. 

Here’s the reality:  There will always be a need for people who work outside of a cubicle or a lab, and therefore skills that don’t require 4 years of school.  Furthermore, if you are mid-career, and a college degree won’t necessarily have you rolling in the dough in the long-term, there are certifications and other specialized training which doesn’t take as long and cost as much.  Arguably, some specialized certifications can rival a 2 year degree and even a 4 year degree when experience is added to the equation.  We need to be honest with ourselves if there is a legit reason we may not be cut out for traditional college.  Don’t be that guy (or girl) that’s on some delusional quest to spend 7+ years and racking up massive debt just to finish a 4 year degree. 

So in case you aren’t tired of the word:  Plan.  Parents, college planning with your kids should begin long before high school.  Get an honest assessment of your child’s strengths, weaknesses, likes, and dislikes.  Teach them the importance of getting job experience, developing face to face social skills (that doesn’t include facebook, twitter, or texting), and how to network.  In today’s society, experience and social skills is as equally important as a college degree.  For those of us already working, you need to also plan and network.   

The Failure of "Rugged Individualism"

As Americans, we relish in the notion of “rugged individualism.”  An idea originally peddled by a history professor by the name of Frederick Jackson Turner in 1893. In a nutshell, he proposed; Due to the pioneering experience of the west, and the isolation that resulted from it, Americans are unique as we have learned to be self-reliant and can go at it alone.  Turner’s romantic view of the American pioneer experience makes for good story telling, but pretty poor history.  In truth, even in the migration west, American families formed larger communities along the trails west and ahead of them, were the US Army cavalry.  They formed long, often heavily organized wagon trains where several different extended families worked together to get to their final destinations.  The idea that mom, dad, and a few kids got into a wagon with few guns and supplies and went to “settle” land alone is as factual as the tooth fairy.  The expansion West was no different than European colonialism in other parts of the world at that time.  The manifest destiny was an organized plan from the highest reaches of the federal government to expand the Nation west.  This was not a handful of pioneers who up and decided on their own it would be wise to move west.   

We Americans have this belief that we can do it all ourselves.   We are seeing the results of this change of focus.  The importance of a close knit, extended family has been reduced.  No longer do we often have older relatives stay under the same roof as younger family unit until they pass away.  In fact, we unwisely assume that our elders are better off in the care of a paid staff in some old folks home.  We don’t know our own neighbors.  People go months or even years without knowing the people that live within yards of their own home.  Paid strangers take care of our children to the tune of sometimes tens of thousands of dollars a year while we work, and not relatives or trusted neighbors.  Depression, likely bought on by this voluntary isolation and the financial stress thereof, is at record levels.   

Here is the reality:  Human beings would have been extinct hundreds of thousands of years ago had we adopted such an unrealistic and laughable individualist philosophy.  Humans from a physiological standpoint were never endowed with big teeth, armor, or big claws to defend ourselves from predators in the wild.  Organized bands of armed hunters protected the tribe from animals which were easily more than capable of making an individual human; even well armed with primitive weapons; it’s lunch.  These early hunter/warriors were also useful for defending against other groups of humans (which gets into another discussion altogether).   

The country itself was not founded on the notion of individualism, period.  It was founded because a group of people that collectively (see word here, collectively) decided that they were tired of paying taxes to a British king 3500 miles away.  Going back even further; had it not been for Native Americans teaching the farming and hunting techniques to very early colonists, the early British and Spanish colonies in the Americas would have not survived at all.  Humans share knowledge.  Humans work together to accomplish goals.  Humans don’t do their own thing, and magically human progress is accomplished.  It has never worked that way, and it never will.   That’s not communism or even socialism to understand and accept the fact that humans are social animals.  Using the aforementioned points about the physiology of humans, we had to be social animals just to make sure we weren’t picked off one by one by hungry saber-tooth cats or any other apex predators that were more than willing and capable of killing us.  We had to be social animals to make sure important knowledge was passed on through the generations.  

We see this even today.  Take the African Water Buffalo for example.  Even though these hardy and strong beasts are more than a match for a single lion or lioness, it takes the herd working together to ensure that herd’s survival.  Adult bulls form tactical defensive positions around the young, and if necessary, actually counter-attack lions.  Imagine if you will if every member of the herd did its own thing when they were under attack from a lion pride.  They would be massacred on a regular basis.  Even the largest toothed mammal in the world, the sperm whale, travels in groups, and uses a “Marguerite formation” similar to what the water buffalo use to protect themselves from predators.  Here, adult females surround the calves in an attack by groups of Orca and use their tails to beat up an attacking pod.  Again, we see these mammals don’t just protect themselves or even just their own young.  They work together to protect all of the young members of the group.  It even goes beyond protection to education.  Not long ago in the human world, little boys after a certain age were essentially taken away from their mothers to live among adult males of the community, related or non-related by blood, and were taught to farm, build, fish, fight, and hunt.  And this was before they were given any classical education.         

My point in this is that we humans are social animals, who; like other mammals such as the water buffalo and the sperm whale, work together for the survival and success of their species.  It wasn’t until very recently in human history, that babies in just about all societies, were nursed by not only their mothers or other women in the extended family, but other unrelated lactating women in the communities.  I’m not saying we should go back to the days of communal breast feeding, but the days of voluntary isolation and avoidance has been an utter failure.   This delusional form of individualism is not only based on myth, but it’s unnatural and wholly ineffective.  At no point in time in human history have we survived without working together at the most basic of levels.   In this “me, me, me” “not my problem” society, we are seeing the negative consequences (IE depression) on the most vulnerable of us; the children and the elderly.    

We need to assess and reset our priorities, and look to the past to look for solutions to our current social ills.  We need to ask the hard questions: Is making that extra 20 grand worth sending your child to a complete stranger who will go ahead and charge you that amount anyway?  If potential parents can’t afford to have one parent stay home in the early years of a child’s life, can you really afford that child?  Who is really raising that child if they spend most of the first years of their life with paid help instead of a parent or even relative?  Will your elderly parents or grandparents be happy spending their rest of their lives among family, or among strangers in some old folks home forgotten and cared for by underpaid workers?  We let paid help raise our kids and send our own elders to exile, then wonder why life in our society seems off balance.  Solutions to these problems can be fixed at the family level, are not radical, and have been around for thousands of years.